Endometrial thickness, Caucasian ethnicity, and age predict clinical pregnancy following fresh blastocyst embryo transfer: a retrospective cohort

BACKGROUND In-vitro fertilization (IVF) with blastocyst as opposed to cleavage stage embryos has been advocated to improve success rates. Limited information exists on which to predict which patients undergoing blastocyst embryo transfer (BET) will achieve pregnancy. This study's objective was to evaluate the predictive value of patient and cycle characteristics for clinical pregnancy following fresh BET. METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study from 2003-2007 at an academic assisted reproductive program. 114 women with infertility underwent fresh IVF with embryo transfer. We studied patients undergoing transfer of embryos at the blastocyst stage of development. Our main outcome of interest was clinical pregnancy. Clinical pregnancy and its associations with patient characteristics (age, body mass index, FSH, ethnicity) and cycle parameters (thickness of endometrial stripe, number eggs, available cleaving embryos, number blastocysts available, transferred, and cryopreserved, and embryo quality) were examined using Student's T test and Mann-Whitney-U tests as appropriate. Multivariable logistic regression models were created to determine independent predictors of CP following BET. Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses were used to determine the optimal thickness of endometrial stripe for predicting clinical pregnancy. RESULTS Patients achieving clinical pregnancy demonstrated a thicker endometrial stripe and were younger preceding embryo transfer. On multivariable logistic regression analyses, Caucasian ethnicity (OR 2.641, 95% CI 1.054-6.617), thickness of endometrial stripe, (OR 1.185, 95% CI 1.006-1.396) and age (OR 0.879, 95% CI 0.789-0.980) predicted clinical pregnancy. By receiver operating characteristic analysis, endometrial stripe >or= 9.4 mm demonstrated a sensitivity of 83% for predicting clinical pregnancy following BET. CONCLUSION In a cohort of patients undergoing fresh BET, thicker endometrial stripe, Caucasian ethnicity, and younger age are positive predictors of clinical pregnancy after fresh BET. These findings may be useful in clinical management of infertile patients undergoing fresh BET cycles.