Bounded uncertainty and climate change economics.
نویسندگان
چکیده
It has been argued recently that the combination of risk aversion and an uncertainty distribution of future temperature change with a heavy upper tail invalidates mainstream economic analyses of climate change policy. A simple model is used to explore the effect of imposing an upper bound on future temperature change. The analysis shows that imposing even a high bound reverses the earlier argument and that the optimal policy, as measured by the willingness to pay to avoid climate change, is relatively insensitive to this bound over a wide range.
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ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
دوره 107 18 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2010