Early and Dynamic Student Achievement Prediction

The increasing popularity of e-learning has created a need for accurate student achievement prediction mechanisms, allowing instructors to improve the efficiency of their courses by addressing specific needs of their students at an early stage. In this paper, a student achievement prediction method applied to a ten-week introductory level e-learning course is presented. The proposed method uses multiple feed-forward neural networks to dynamically predict students’ final achievement and to cluster them in two virtual groups, according to their performance. Multiple choice test grades were used as the input data set of the networks. This form of tests was preferred for its objectivity. Results showed that accurate prediction is possible at an early stage, more specifically at the third week of the ten-week course. In addition, when students were clustered, low misplacement rates demonstrated the adequacy of the approach. The results of the proposed method were compared against those of linear regression and the neural network approach was found to be more effective in