Tra � cking Networks and the Mexican Drug War ⇤

Drug trade-related violence has escalated dramatically in Mexico since 2007, and recent years have also witnessed large-scale e↵orts to combat tra cking, spearheaded by Mexico’s conservative PAN party. This study examines the direct and spillover e↵ects of Mexican policy towards the drug trade. Regression discontinuity estimates show that drug-related violence increases substantially after close elections of PAN mayors. Empirical evidence suggests that the violence reflects rival tra ckers’ attempts to usurp territories after crackdowns have weakened incumbent criminals. Moreover, the study uses a network model of tra cking routes to show that PAN victories divert drug tra c, increasing violence along alternative drug routes.