The U.S. economy to 2010

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS, the Bureau) projections for the U.S. economy during the 2000–10 decade reflect continued growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to reach $12.8 trillion in chained 1996 dollars by the end of the decade, an increase of $3.6 trillion over the period. Rising by an average annual rate of 3.4 percent, GDP is projected to grow faster than the 3.2percent annual rate of growth over the preceding 10-year period, from 1990 to 2000. Slower growth of civilian household employment, from 1.3 percent a year during the 1990–2000 period to 1.1 percent from 2000 to 2010, is expected to result in an increase of 16.2 million employees over the latter period, slightly less than the increase of 16.4 million employees between 1990 and 2000. The employment projection is accompanied by an assumed unemployment rate of 4.0 percent in 2010, the same as in 2000. To best understand how these projections relate to the U.S. economy, it is helpful to examine the effects of major economic events that took place over the past four decades. During the decade of the 1960s, labor productivity grew at an annual average rate of 2.9 percent, spurred by the aerospace program and strong defense-related demand. During the 1970s, labor productivity growth slowed to 1.8 percent annually as businesses struggled to deal with skyrocketing petroleum prices, energy shortages, sharp cutbacks in defense spending, and a deemphasis of aerospace research programs. The Betty W. Su is an economist in the Division of Industry Employment Projections, Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Betty W. Su Domestic growth with continued high productivity, low unemployment rates, and strong foreign markets characterize the expected outlook for the coming decade Employment outlook: 2000–10