Analytical Models of Forest Dynamics

The hierarchical system of forest ecosystem models based on the theory of individual-based (structured) models of populations and communities is briefly described. New self-thinning models are integrated with tree stand models within a hierarchical system of models, aimed at assessing (quasi-) stable states of a forest ecosystem under given environment and management. Within the structural model of succession, the “ergodic theorems in biology” (announced earlier) are proved. They assert that the areas of biocenoses in a climax state of association should be proportional to the “proper times” of their development in a succession line; the other characteristics of biocenoses should be also proportional to their own “proper regeneration times” in a climax state. A simple theoretical approach to estimating the deviation of the current state of forest ecosystem from its steady state is derived and applied to data from the Prioksko-Terrasny Reserve. The results obtained can serve as a theoretical basis in numerical processing of data on ecological monitoring of undisturbed forest lands.