Forecast Evaluation and Combination

The Variance-covariance Method using IOWGA Operator for Tourism Forecast Combination

Three combination methods commonly used in tourism forecasting are the simple average method, the variance-covariance method and the discounted MSFE method. These methods assign the different weights that can not change at each time point to each individual forecasting model. In this study, we introduce the IOWGA operator combination method which can overcome the defect of previous three combin...

Evaluation of neuro fuzzy systems performance for runoff forecast (Case study: Allah-Jokanak basin)

Forecasting the unemployment rate when the forecast loss function is asymmetric

This paper studies forecasts when the forecast loss function is asymmetric, using Australian unemployment rates as an example. We focus on simple univariate models including autoregressive models and self-exciting threshold autoregressive models and we employ the same asymmetric quadratic loss function that is used for forecast evaluation at the model selection, model estimation and forecast co...

An Evaluation of Forecasting Methods and Forecast Combination Methods in Goods Management Systems

In this paper we use 4 different time series models to forecast sales in a goods management system. We use a variety of forecast combining techniques and measure the forecast quality by applying symmetric and asymmetric forecast quality measures. Simple, rank-, and criteria-based combining methods lead to an improvement of the individual time series models.

Providing A Model for Management Earnings Forecast Bias

Despite The Important Role That Management Profit Forecasting Plays In The Decision Making Of Capital Market Actors, These Predictions Appear To Be Biased. In The Attempt To Measure The Bias Of Predicting Profit Management, Numerous One- Dimensional Measurement Tools Have Been Proposed In The Accounting And Finance Literature. Despite These Efforts, No Comprehensive Composite Index Has Been Dev...