Overestimating Comparative Value 1 RUNNING HEAD: Overestimating Comparative Value Consuming Experience: Why and When Affective Forecasters Overestimate Comparative Value

The hedonic value of an outcome can be influenced by the alternatives to which it is compared, which is why people expect to be happier with outcomes that maximize comparative value (e.g., a job that pays them $45,000 and pays others $40,000) than with outcomes that maximize absolute value (e.g., a job that pays them $50,000 and pays others $55,000). Eight experiments showed that affective forecasters tend to overestimate the importance of comparative value because they do not realize that noticing differences between a target and a standard experience requires cognitive resources, and that hedonic experiences consume more attention than mental representations of those experiences (which are what their forecasts are based on). The results suggest that affective forecasters mispredict the hedonic value of future experiences because they overestimate the extent to which they will think about what they didn’t get while experiencing what they got.