Does Theology Matter? A Theoretical Look At Religious Terrorists and Their Organizations

If religious beliefs matter, how should we expect those beliefs to affect the behavior of religious terrorists? The religious motivation for terrorism often is assumed to be pursuit of bene ts in the afterlife. Though Berman (2009) and others do not nd much empirical support for theology as an motivator for terrorism, few economic models of terrorism attempt to incorporate religious beliefs. We explicitly model religious beliefs that may be held by terrorists, including expectations about the afterlife, blessings, punishment, or other supernatural responses to human activity. We consider whether religious beliefs might lead to behavior different than that of nonreligious terrorists, and whether the theoretical implications are consistent with the empirical evidence. We employ an (after) life-cycle model of consumption and savings that allows accumulation of religious capital by sacri cing economic resources, and where religious capital yields expected rewards in the afterlife. We incorporate beliefs that suicidal attacks also might be rewarded in the afterlife. In this way, we consider the anticipation of reward and punishment in the afterlife as a motivation for sacri ce in the present world. The model is con gured to re ect several common characteristics of religious terrorism, and optimal behavior is derived. The results suggest policy responses to lessen the appeal of terrorism and we determine the conditions under which such policies might prove effective. We extend the analysis of the individual to that of the group. In particular, we consider the behavior of such agents within the club model developed by Iannoccone. We consider economic sacri ce as a signal of commitment to the group. Committed members might be entrusted with activities that are dangerous for the group, where the risk of defection otherwise is high. The paper remains incomplete. Comments will be appreciated.