The Driving Forces of Iran’s

Using the Census data 1976-2006 besides HIES in 1984, this paper establishes that the “Iran’s Baby Boom” in the late 1970’s and the early 1980’s coincided with an increase in the number of marriages. In addition, the paper shows that different generations peaked their life cycle number of children over the same period, which increased their age specific fertilities and consequently TFR during the baby boom. Moreover, the paper documents that the female labor participation declined about 33% after the revolution. All these facts are consistent with our observation that in contrast to the US baby boom, the CEB has been decreasing throughout the baby boom. To assess, quantitatively, which fundamental factors derived these stylized facts, we develop a dynamic model that individuals decide endogenously about marriage, giving birth, asset holdings, and labor force. Then we use the Simulated Method of Moment (SMM) to estimate the structural model. Our preliminary estimations show that the baby boom after the revolution is mostly driven by getting more utility from children and marriage rather than a fall in child costs. We conduct two counterfactual experiments and conclude that the legal marriage amendment shows significant effects on the marriage rate.