Population cigarette consumption in Great Britain: novel insights using retail sales data

BACKGROUND Accurate data to measure population cigarette consumption are vital for surveillance and for evaluating the impact of tobacco control policies. This study uses cigarette retail sales data to provide novel insights into trends and patterns in cigarette consumption in Great Britain. METHODS Cigarette sales estimates derived from electronic sales from most large grocery stores and a weighted representative sample of smaller convenience stores were obtained from Nielsen. Data on the number of cigarette sticks sold per calendar month and per week were obtained for Scotland and England/Wales (combined) for the period January 2008 to December 2015. Cigarette consumption per adult smoker per month was calculated using survey-based smoking prevalence estimates and mid-year population estimates. RESULTS Population cigarette consumption in Great Britain declined between 2008 and 2013. Cigarette sales have since stabilised at around 400 cigarettes per adult smoker per month. Cigarettes sold in 14- to 19-packs have substituted a sharp decline in 20-packs and now account for over half of all cigarettes sold in Great Britain. Cigarette consumption has been consistently higher in Scotland than England/Wales. This is due to higher sales of 20-packs in Scotland between 2008 and 2013, which has been substituted by higher sales of 14- to 19-packs in recent years. CONCLUSIONS Cigarette retail sales data provide unique insights into levels and patterns of cigarette consumption and should be used for monitoring and evaluating tobacco control policy in Great Britain.