Fast Simulation, Monitoring, and Mitigation of Cascading Failure
نویسنده
چکیده
We estimate with a branching process model the propa-gation of load shed and the probability distribution of loadshed in simulated blackouts of an electric power system.The average propagation of the simulated load shed datais estimated and then the initial load shed is discretized andpropagated with a Galton-Watson branching process modelof cascading failure to estimate the probability distributionof total load shed. We initially test the estimated distribu-tion of total load shed using load shed data generated by theOPA simulation of cascading transmission line outages onthe 300 bus IEEE test system. We discuss the effectivenessof the estimator in terms of how many cascades need to besimulated to predict the distribution of load shed accurately.
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