Testing green coffee for ochratoxin A, part II: Observed distribution of ochratoxin A test results.

The suitability of 4 theoretical distributions (normal, lognormal, negative binomial, and gamma) to predict the observed distribution of ochratoxin A (OTA) in green coffee was investigated. One symmetrical and 3 positively skewed theoretical distributions were each fitted to 25 empirical distributions of OTA test results for green coffee beans. Parameters of each theoretical distribution were calculated by using Methods of Moments. The 3 skewed theoretical distributions provided acceptable fits to each of the 25 observed distributions. Because of its simplicity, the lognormal distribution was selected to model OTA test results for green coffee. Using variance equations determined in previous studies, mathematical expressions were developed to calculate the parameters of the log normal distribution for a given OTA lot concentration and test procedure. Observed acceptance probabilities were compared to an operating characteristic curve predicted from the lognormal distribution, and all 25 observed acceptance probabilities were found to lie within the 95% confidence band associated with the predicted operating characteristic curve. The parameters of compound gamma distribution were used to calculate the fraction of OTA contamination beans within a contaminated lot. The percent-contaminated beans were a function of the lot concentration and increased with lot concentration. At a lot concentration of 5 microg/kg, approximately 6 beans per 10,000 beans are contaminated.