Inference and forecasting in the age-period-cohort model with unknown exposure with an application to mesothelioma mortality

نویسندگان

  • Maŕıa Dolores Mart́ınez Miranda
  • Jens Perch Nielsen
چکیده

It is of considerable interest to forecast future mesothelioma mortality. No measures for exposure are available so it is not straight forward to apply a doseresponse model. It is proposed to model the counts of deaths directly using a Poisson regression with an age-period-cohort structure, but without offset. Traditionally the age-period-cohort is viewed to suffer from an identification problem. It is shown how to re-parameterize the model in terms of freely varying parameters, so as to avoid this problem. It is shown how to conduct inference and how to construct distribution forecasts.

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تاریخ انتشار 2013