Modeling International Tourism Demand in Cambodia: ARDL Model

This study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to study the dynamic determinant factors that influence both long and short-term international tourism demand in Cambodia from 12 countries. The annual time series data (1994–2013) are used in this study. The study finds that only the international tourism demand model of Australia, Canada, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and USA are sustainable as long-term relationships between their potential key explanatory variables (RGDPPC, TP, UR, and PGR). The results suggest the lagged dependent variable has a positive impact on tourist arrival rates to Cambodia from Canada and the UK. Real GDP per capita has a positive effect on tourist arrival rates from Thailand, while the lag of RGDPPC has a significant positive impact on tourist arrival rates from Australia and Canada. The population growth rates (PGR) in Thailand and Australia have positive and negative effects on tourist arrival rates to Cambodia, respectively. The unemployment growth rate (UR) in Australia and its lag in Canada show significant positive impacts on tourist arrival rates from both countries, respectively. PGR, lag in PGR and an increasing UR are significant negative factors on tourist arrivals from the USA. Adjustment rates’ returns to their respective long-term equilibria from short-term flux were 52.2% (Australia), 129.5% (Canada), 61.18% (Thailand), 116.3% (The UK), and 213% (The USA). JEL Classification: C22, F14