Planes, Trains, and Co-Opetition: Evidence from China∗
نویسنده
چکیده
The roll-out of the high speed train (HST) in China during the past decade o ers travelers a realistic choice of rail versus air on overlapping routes. While the HST competes for tra c it also feeds tra c to the non-overlapping air routes that are connected to the HST network. This paper analyzes the impact of HST roll-out on air carriers' route network decisions. Using a unique hand-collected dataset on airline networks and the timing of the HST roll-out, I rst present reduced-form evidence that suggests that the HST may have positive spillover e ects on the airline industry. I then estimate a structural dynamic oligopoly model of air route entry and exit over time. With the structural estimates, I carry out policy experiments in which the HST had not been introduced. Comparing the air carriers' route networks in the counterfactual scenario with those in a scenario with HST roll-out, I nd that the introduction of HST has reduced air carriers' route presence by about 15%, and it is usually the cities located in the geographically central area of China that experience the largest decrease. In another policy experiment, I improve the positive spillover e ects from HST and predict the corresponding route networks of the air carriers. I nd that, to compensate for the overall negative impact of HST on the airline industry, the HST needs to feed at least 40% more tra c to the air routes.
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