Mutual Inclusion in Flood Forecasting
نویسنده
چکیده
Mutual exclusion is directly related to a host of selections at both system and component levels; is responsible for diversification; and gives rise to uniqueness. Mutual exclusion is also evident in modelling and flood forecasting, be it in models, software tools, data, modelling practices, flood forecasting and warning issues, and management systems. The emerging picture is that (i) diversity is positive in creating different possibilities and alternatives; (ii) uniqueness/exclusion conceals inherent interconnectivities and acts as a barrier to interdisciplinary knowledge integration; (iii) there is nothing unique about uniqueness, since it is possible to see through uniqueness by mutual inclusion. Science has actually developed diversity management tools for seeing through uniqueness, comprising: (i) categorisation to unravel inherent interconnectivities, as in biology, and (ii) feedback mechanisms, as in systems science. Research and business cases are outlined here for mutual inclusion in flood forecasting and modelling, aiming to give a better insight to ongoing integration drives.
منابع مشابه
Flood Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks: an Application of Multi-Model Data Fusion technique
Floods are among the natural disasters that cause human hardship and economic loss. Establishing a viable flood forecasting and warning system for communities at risk can mitigate these adverse effects. However, establishing an accurate flood forecasting system is still challenging due to the lack of knowledge about the effective variables in forecasting. The present study has indicated that th...
متن کاملWater Flow Forecasting and River Simulation for Flood Risk Analysis
The paper presents the state-of-the-art in flood forecasting and simulation applied to a river flood analysis and risk prediction. Different water flow forecasting and river simulation models are analysed. An advanced river flood forecasting and modelling approach developed within the ongoing project INFROM is described. It provides an integrated procedure for river flow forecasting and simulat...
متن کاملReal Time Flood Forecasting - Indian Experiences
The real time flood forecasting is one of the most effective nonstructural measures for flood management. For formulating the flood forecast in the real time, the observed meteorological and flow data are transmitted to the forecasting station through the different means of data communication which include telephone, wireless and network of telemetry stations etc. The collected meteorological a...
متن کاملActif Best Practice Paper – Understanding and Reducing Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting
The overall the aim of the ACTIF project is to produce guidance from a cluster of European Commission (EC) funded research projects commissioned under the Fifth Framework Programme. The guidance will reflect state-of-the-art information to improve the diversity of practices, institutional arrangements and management targets currently present in Europe. It should be noted that United Nations and...
متن کاملA Novel Flood Forecasting Method Based on Initial State Variable Correction
The influence of initial state variables on flood forecasting accuracy by using conceptual hydrological models is analyzed in this paper and a novel flood forecasting method based on correction of initial state variables is proposed. The new method is abbreviated as ISVC (Initial State Variable Correction). The ISVC takes the residual between the measured and forecasted flows during the initial...
متن کامل