Can adolescents predict significant life events?

نویسندگان

  • Wändi Bruine de Bruin
  • Andrew M Parker
  • Baruch Fischhoff
چکیده

We examine whether adolescents' probability judgments for significant life events are predictive and accurate. We find significant correlations with actual experiences, reported on successive waves of a national survey. Mean probability judgments approximated observed outcome rates, or were optimistic, except that adolescents greatly overestimated their probability of dying prematurely.

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine

دوره 41 2  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2007