The Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve: a Case Study for Qualitative Modeling of Sustainable Development

We present progress towards developing a qualitative reasoning model of sustainable development issues in the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR), Romania, following a standardized methodology for conceptual description of QR case studies. Using the QR ontology, we have organized our expert knowledge about negative effects of water pollution on aquatic biota (especially on fish) and human health (those people living in and around the DDBR). We present essential background about the model system, organization of this knowledge into knowledge structures that will drive our QR model, and define causal dependencies that will be implemented in the QR modeling workbench, Garp3. The new methodology was very helpful in structuring the model-building effort. This structure will aid the task of comparing and recombining QR case studies of sustainability issues in the future.