Sustainable Consumption of Food: A Framework for Analyzing Scenarios about Changes in Diets

This paper proposes an integration of life-cycle assessment methods with a new input-output model of the world economy to analyze the environmental and economic implications of alternative future diets. The paper reviews findings by industrial ecologists about the energy and land required for the production and consumption of alternative foods and diets in several European countries. It also reviews those attributes of foods and diets identified by nutritionists as reducing the risks of obesity and major chronic diseases. The predominantly plant-based Mediterranean-type diet is an important example that can satisfy both sets of concerns. The likely resource implications of a shift toward this diet from the current average diet in the United States are discussed. The set of one-country studies reveals the advantages of analyzing scenarios about global dietary changes using a model of the world economy that consistently tracks consumption, production and trade in physical and price units. The World Health Organization’s newly-approved, global strategy on diet and health intends to enlist the support of stakeholders in governments, corporations, and civil society. Analysis of the environmental and economic implications of alternative scenarios describing healthy diets can enrich the information base fostering a more intensive dialogue, debate, and action among the interested parties.