Profiting from an inefficient association football gambling market: Prediction, risk and uncertainty using Bayesian networks

Bayesian networks for prediction, risk assessment and decision making in an inefficient Association Football gambling market

Profiting from arbitrage and odds biases of the European football gambling market

A gambling market is usually described as being inefficient if there are one or more betting strategies that generate profit, at a consistent rate, as a consequence of exploiting market flaws. This paper examines the online European football gambling market based on 14 European football leagues over a period of seven years, from season 2005/06 to 2011/12 inclusive, and takes into consideration ...

Beating the bookies with their own numbers - and how the online sports betting market is rigged

The online sports gambling industry employs teams of data analysts to build forecast models that turn the odds at sports games in their favour. While several betting strategies have been proposed to beat bookmakers, from expert prediction models and arbitrage strategies to odds bias exploitation, their returns have been inconsistent and it remains to be shown that a betting strategy can outperf...

The Prediction Model for Bankruptcy Risk by Bayesian Method

The importance of predicting bankruptcy risk of firms is increasing because of later financial crisis. Despite practical researchers trying to present models for predicting this risk, it seems that an optimum and acceptable model that is reliable for financial statement users and auditors in order to increase their ability in decision making and professional judgment has not been presented yet....

A Surface Water Evaporation Estimation Model Using Bayesian Belief Networks with an Application to the Persian Gulf

Evaporation phenomena is a effective climate component on water resources management and has special importance in agriculture. In this paper, Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) as a non-linear modeling technique provide an evaporation estimation  method under uncertainty. As a case study, we estimated the surface water evaporation of the Persian Gulf and worked with a dataset of observations ...