Development of Weather Forecasting Skill for Students in the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Washington

Daily values of forecast scores are evaluated for the students in a weather analysis and forecasting class (ATMS 452) offered by the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of the University of Washington during the spring terms of 1997 through 2007. The objective of this study is to determine the rate at which senior-level undergraduate students develop proficiency at short-term (next-day) weather forecasting. Separate analyses are carried out for different categories of forecast parameters. Time series of the average skill achieved over the course of the quarter are considered for the median student, and the highest two and lowest two student forecasters each year. An overall upward trend in student forecast skill occurs over roughly the first six weeks of the quarter, followed by minimal systematic changes in skill. The correlation coefficient between the students’ overall forecast performance and test scores in ATMS 452 is about 0.4. The results are relevant to the design of effective instructional programs for weather forecasting.