Endogenising demographic variables in demo-economic models: the Bachue experience.

The attempt is made in this discussion to describe and draw lessons from the treatment of behavioral demographic variables in the Bachue demo-economic models constructed for the Philippines, Kenya, Brazil and Yugoslavia. Focus is on certain theoretical, technical and practical problems encountered in inserting demographic variables in the system as a whole; how they have been measured in the various applications of the Bachue models, how they are behaviorally explained and linked to the other elements in the system, the data sources used, and some issues of econometric estimates and modelling. 8 issues are dealt with: population accounting and lag structure; fertility; mortality; migration; nuptiality; household formation; schooling; and labor force participation. In each case model structure, dependent and explanatory variables, and empirical strategy are discussed. Summary tables compare the approaches of the different models. The specifics of each country situation rule out the identification of the best solution. Some suggestions regarding more promising approaches are included with respect to choice of variables and the estimation of behavioral models. The endogenous nature of certain demographic elements of a demo-economic model are clear, but construction of the Bachue models has shown that there are no exact rules valid for all cases. There is considerable variety in the way characteristics of the population have been represented in the various applications.