Uncertainty quantification of an Aviation Environmental Toolsuite

A decomposition-based uncertainty quantification approach for environmental impacts of aviation technology and operation

As a measure to manage the climate impact of aviation, significant enhancements to aviation technologies and operations are necessary. When assessing these enhancements and their respective impacts on the climate, it is important that we also quantify the associated uncertainties—this is important to support an effective decision and policy making process. However, such quantification of uncert...

Forward and Backward Uncertainty Quantification in Optimization

This contribution gathers some of the ingredients presented during the Iranian Operational Research community gathering in Babolsar in 2019.It is a collection of several previous publications on how to set up an uncertainty quantification (UQ) cascade with ingredients of growing computational complexity for both forward and reverse uncertainty propagation.

Surrogate Modeling for Uncertainty Assessment with Application to Aviation Environmental System Models

Numerical simulation models to support decision-making and policy-making processes are often complex, involving many disciplines, many inputs, and long computation times. Inputs to such models are inherently uncertain, leading to uncertainty in model outputs. Characterizing, propagating, and analyzing this uncertainty is critical both to model development and to the effective application of mod...

 The Quantification of Uncertainties in Production Prediction Using Integrated Statistical and Neural Network Approaches: An Iranian Gas Field Case Study

Uncertainty in production prediction has been subject to numerous investigations. Geological and reservoir engineering data comprise a huge number of data entries to the simulation models. Thus, uncertainty of these data can largely affect the reliability of the simulation model. Due to these reasons, it is worthy to present the desired quantity with a probability distribution instead of a sing...

Environmental Informatics: Uncertainty Quantification in the Environmental Sciences