Genetic variants in the PI3K/PTEN/AKT/mTOR pathway predict head and neck cancer patient second primary tumor/recurrence risk and response to retinoid chemoprevention.

PURPOSE The development of second primary tumors (SPT) or recurrence alters prognosis for curatively treated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients. The 13-cis-Retinoic acid (13-cRA) has been tested as a chemoprevention agent in clinical trials with mixed results. Therefore, we investigated whether genetic variants in the PI3K/PTEN/AKT/mTOR pathway could serve as biomarkers to identify which patients are at high risk of an SPT/recurrence, while also predicting response to 13-cRA chemoprevention. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN A total of 137 pathway single-nucleotide polymorphisms were genotyped in 440 patients from the Retinoid Head and Neck Second Primary Trial and assessed for SPT/recurrence risk and response to 13-cRA. Risk models were created based on epidemiology, clinical, and genetic data. RESULTS Twenty-two genetic loci were associated with increased SPT/recurrence risk, with six also being associated with a significant benefit following chemoprevention. Combined analysis of these high-risk/high-benefit loci identified a significant (P = 1.54 × 10(-4)) dose-response relationship for SPT/recurrence risk, with patients carrying four to five high-risk genotypes having a 3.76-fold [95% Confidence Interval (CI), 1.87-7.57] increase in risk in the placebo group (n = 215). Patients carrying four to five high-risk loci showed the most benefit from 13-cRA chemoprevention, with a 73% reduction in SPT/recurrence (95% CI, 0.13-0.58) compared with those with the same number of high-risk genotypes who were randomized to receive placebo. Incorporation of these loci into a risk model significantly improved the discriminatory ability over models with epidemiology, clinical, and previously identified genetic variables. CONCLUSIONS These results show that loci within this important pathway could identify individuals with a high-risk/high-benefit profile and are a step toward personalized chemoprevention for HNSCC patients.