Nomograms predicting disease-specific regional recurrence and distant recurrence of papillary thyroid carcinoma following partial or total thyroidectomy

The study aimed to establish effective nomograms for prediction of tumor regional recurrence and distant recurrence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients after partial or total thyroidectomy.These nomograms were based on a retrospective study on 1034 patients who underwent partial or total thyroidectomy for PTC. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomograms were evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. In addition, a validation cohort was included at the same institution.Multivariate analysis demonstrated that family history, maximal tumor diameter, capsular invasion, and lymph node staging were independent risk factors for regional recurrence-free survival; and family history, histological variants, capsular invasion, perineuronal invasion, and vascular invasion were independent risk factors for distant recurrence-free survival. They were selected into the 2 nomograms, respectively, and the C-index for regional recurrence-free survival and distant recurrence-free survival prediction were 0.72 and 0.83, respectively. In the validation cohort, the 2 nomograms displayed a C-index of 0.72 and 0.89, respectively.The nomograms developed in this study demonstrated their discrimination capability for predicting 3 and 5-year regional recurrence and distant recurrence after partial or total thyroidectomy, and can be used to identify high-risk patients.