Can We Predict Risk-taking Behavior? Two Behavioral Tests for Predicting Guessing Tendencies in a Multiple Choice Test Running Head: Two Behavioral Tests for Assessing Risk-propensity

Objective behavioral personality measures are an alternative to traditional self-report personality assessment and overcome some of the difficulties traditional assessment shows. This paper presents two studies in which two measures of risk propensity are validated. In Study 1, 1,325 applicants for an ab initio air traffic control training program were assessed using the Roulette Test (RT) and the Crossing the Street Test (CtST). Convergent as well as criterion validity were tested using the guessing tendency demonstrated by participants in a multiple choice test. Once the effect of general cognitive ability was leveled out, results showed the predictive capacity of both tests. Study 2 replicated the previous study. 127 3 year Psychology students were assessed using the RT. Results showed that the test had an even higher predictive validity of the Guessing Tendency (GT) shown in a multiple choice test. Usefulness for personnel recruitment processes and other assessment contexts are emphasized as are future trends of objective personality assessment.