Psychology, Risk, and the Decision to Launch the Persian Gulf War

Prospect theory is an influential psychological theory that describes how individuals make decisions involving risk. One of its key findings is that decision-makers are risk averse when in a ―domain of gain‖ (when they have experienced success), and risk acceptant when in a ―domain of loss‖ (when they have experienced setbacks). In this paper, I use prospect theory to examine George H. W. Bush’s political and military choices as they led to American involvement in the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Specifically, I explore whether there is a correlation between Bush’s domain and his willingness to accept risk. Although I find that Bush’s willingness to go to war is consistent with the predictions of prospect theory, the task of establishing Bush’s domain makes it is difficult to exclude competing explanations such as rational-choice theory. 1 Ty Otto is an undergraduate physics and political science student at the University of Washington. He is a graduate of Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology in Alexandria, Virginia. Although he grew up in an Air Force family moving frequently between different postings around the world, he is happy to call Seattle his adopted home. Otto is a member of the #1-ranked University of Washington rowing team, and he has competed for the United States in international competition. His hobbies include cycling, hiking, gardening, reading atlases, and occasionally spending time at the Duchess Tavern.