Neither the devil nor the deep blue sea: larval mortality factors fail to explain the abundance and distribution of Tischeria ekebladella

1. The distribution, abundance and population dynamics of herbivorous insects may be affected by trophic interactions, by abiotic influences, or by intraspecific processes. Relatively little is known about how trophic influences vary across space. Here, we investigate spatial variation in mortality in the oak-feeding leaf miner Tischeria ekebladella as attributable to individual causal agents. 2. Leaf miners were experimentally introduced on 67 trees on an island 5 km2 in area in south-western Finland. On each tree, some larvae were protected by a muslin bag, others by a glue barrier around the branch and some left exposed. 3. In the bagged transplants, 78.4% of larvae survived, compared to only 9.6% in the other two treatments. Most of the mortality was due to airborne agents: mortality on branches sheltered by a glue barrier was as high as on fully exposed branch tips. 4. We consider mortality caused by parasitoid wasps to be the main source of larval death and the primary factor driving general patterns of survival. The effects of bird predation and premature leaf abscission were negligible. 5. We detected spatial aggregation in larval survival and parasitism rates at the level of individual trees, but not across the landscape. 6. Neither spatial variation in overall leaf miner survival, parasitism, nor leaf abscission suffice to explain patterns of incidence and abundance of wild T. ekebladella on experimental trees. Rather, we identify metapopulation dynamics as a likely determinant of the spatial distribution of T. ekebladella in the