What Can Africa Expect From Its Traditional Exports?

This study examines the implications of recent trade trends and long-term price projections for Sub-Saharan Africa’s major exports. Its policy message for Africa is two fold. First, Africa must diversify away from traditional products or continue to experience serious negative trade effects including; (i) declining or relatively low growth in global demand for these goods, (ii) falling real prices for traditional products, (iii) very unstable prices and export earnings, (iv) a continued marginalization in world trade, and (v) diminished growth and industrialization prospects. However, there is no evidence that any general diversification is occurring. Domestic and international policy initiates must assign a far greater importance to the need for diversifying Africa’s exports. Second, it is unlikely that major shifts in the composition of exports can occur in the short to medium-term. As such, the removal of general anti-export biases in African countries’ domestic policies, as well as initiatives to promote more competitive (low cost) prices for traditional exports, still require immediate attention. Future markets for traditional products will be highly competitive and African countries failing to implement policies promoting production efficiencies and lower costs should expect to experience major competitive export losses for these key items. Authors’ Affiliation and Sponsorship