Modelling to explore land use patterns at the forest edge: Objectives and Model Design

A model is proposed that will enable forest and land use policy options to be explored in an repeatable, objective and quantitative way. Construction and use of the model should lead to a better understanding of spatial and temporal land use patterns. It will provide detailed spatially-explicit data on a range of parameters to enable on-going development and validation. The model is based on the assumption that land use patterns ultimately are shaped by individuals who make rational decisions based on available information, obligations and expectations (social as well as economic). Since these decisions are rational, they, and the resulting land use patterns, can be modelled and predicted. Furthermore, we assume that in making these decisions, individuals balance the anticipated returns and risks, and that an individual’s particular strategy (i.e. emphasis on profit-maximization or risk minimization) reflects his status and security. Important inputs to the model include spatial (land tenure, topography, soils), social (demography, clan obligations, cultural traditions), and economic data (crop yields, market prices, transport costs). Notice that land use is not an input to the model, but that the model can predict spatially-explicit land use patterns. Thus land use predictions may provide a robust way to benchmark the model. The model can be implemented in a hierarchical way, so that it can operate at the village, provincial or national scale, with the detail of inputs and outputs varying accordingly.