Voting but for the Law: Evidence from Virginia on Photo Identification Requirements∗

One contentious question in contemporary election administration is the impact of voter identification requirements. We study a Virginia law which allows us to isolate the impact of requiring voters to show photo identification. Using novel, precinctlevel data, we find that the percentage of registered voters without a driver’s license and over age 85 are both positively associated with the number of provisional ballots cast due to lacking a photo ID. To examine the law’s impact on turnout, we associate precinct-level demographics with the change in turnout between the 2013 gubernatorial and 2014 midterm elections. All else equal, turnout was higher in places where more active registered voters lacked a driver’s license. This unexpected relationship might be explained by a targeted Department of Elections mailing, suggesting that the initial impact of voter ID laws may hinge on efforts to notify voters likely to be affected. ∗We thank Martha Brissette of the Virginia Department of Elections for assistance collecting data on provisional ballots, Michael Wood of Catalist for assistance collecting voter file information, the Virginia Public Access Project for providing a precinct-level shapefile, Alisha Chowdhury and Gabrielle Cuccia for their research assistance, as well as Douglas Spencer and Gaurav Sood for their helpful comments and suggestions. We also thank the Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies for financial support.