Mexican conifers differ in their capacity to face climate change

The recent massive dieback of forest trees due to drought stress makes assessment of the variability of physiological traits that might be critical for predicting forest response and adaptation to climate change even more urgent. We investigated xylem vulnerability to cavitation and xylem specific hydraulic conductivity in seven species of three principal conifer genera (Juniperus monticola, Juniperus deppeana, Juniperus flaccida, Pinus pseudostrobus, Pinus leiophylla, Pinus devoniana, and the endangered Picea chihuahuana) of the Mexican mountains in order to identify the species most vulnerable to future warmer and drier climates. Hydraulic traits were examined using the in situ flow centrifuge technique (Cavitron) on branches collected from adult trees of natural populations and seedlings growing in a common garden. We found evidence of significant differences in xylem safety between genera (P50: pressure inducing 50% loss of hydraulic conductance): the three juniper species exhibited low P50 values (ranging from -9.9 to -10.4 MPa), relative to the much more vulnerable pine and spruce species (P50 ranging between 2.9 to 3.3 MPa). Our findings also revealed no variation in P50 between adult trees assessed in the field and seedlings growing in a common garden. We therefore propose that if, as projected, climate change makes their natural habitats much warmer and drier, populations of Mexican pines and the studied spruce will be likely to decline severely as a result of droughtstress induced cavitation, while the juniper species will survive.