1996 Party Leadership

In a country where only two political parties — the Democrats and Republicans — have dominated electoral politics since the Civil War, any electoral headway by a third party or candidate is a noteworthy event. Setting aside Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose Party effort, Perot’s 18.9% of the popular vote in 1992 was the largest third party popular vote since the Civil War. By running again in 1996 and winning 8.4% of the vote, Perot became the first third party candidate to win more than 5% of the vote in successive elections since the Civil War. Even his diminished vote in 1996 was surpassed by only three other candidates in the last hundred years. Numbers aside, what was also noteworthy about Perot’s 1996 presidential bid was that, whereas in 1992 he ran as an independent, in 1996 he was the nominee of the new Reform Party. Moreover, he proved to the American electorate that his challenge to the major parties was still relevant four years later. In this report to respondents we examine the prospects of the Reform Party for becoming an enduring part of the U.S. political system. The basis of our analysis for this report are national samples of contributors to the Democratic, Republican, and Reform parties. The two major-party samples were drawn from databases of contributors to the Republican and Democratic national committees in late 1994 and 1995, and the Reform Party sample in drawn from the 1996 campaign contributors.1 Because of the lack of long-term success among American third parties, evaluating the Reform Party’s prospects beyond 1996 is very difficult. However, it is clear that for the party to achieve long-term success, it must develop an ongoing basis of support that transcends any individual leader. The basis of this support could be distinctive ideological positioning, specific issue positions or distinctive issue priorities. This last possibility is important because during times of partisan change –– times during which third The Reform Party in 1996: A Report to Respondents