Mathematical Modeling of Programmatic Requirements for Yaws Eradication
نویسندگان
چکیده
Yaws is targeted for eradication by 2020. The mainstay of the eradication strategy is mass treatment followed by case finding. Modeling has been used to inform programmatic requirements for other neglected tropical diseases and could provide insights into yaws eradication. We developed a model of yaws transmission varying the coverage and number of rounds of treatment. The estimated number of cases arising from an index case (basic reproduction number [R0]) ranged from 1.08 to 3.32. To have 80% probability of achieving eradication, 8 rounds of treatment with 80% coverage were required at low estimates of R0 (1.45). This requirement increased to 95% at high estimates of R0 (2.47). Extending the treatment interval to 12 months increased requirements at all estimates of R0. At high estimates of R0 with 12 monthly rounds of treatment, no combination of variables achieved eradication. Models should be used to guide the scale-up of yaws eradication.
منابع مشابه
Yaws Prevalence, Lessons from the Field and the Way Forward towards Yaws Eradication in Ghana
Despite past WHO/UNICEF led global yaws eradication efforts, the disease seems to persist. The true burden is however not known for comprehensive action. Ghana's data showed significant increase in notified cases since the 1970s. Recognizing limitations in routine data, we carried out a yaws treatment survey in 2008 in three purposively selected districts to establish the prevalence and learn l...
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