Projected impact and cost-effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccination program in India, 2008.

BACKGROUND To assess the value of rotavirus vaccination in India, we determined the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of a national rotavirus vaccination program. METHODS We compared the national rotavirus disease and cost burden with and without a vaccination program and assessed the cost-effectiveness of vaccination. Model inputs included measures of disease and cost burden, vaccine performance, and vaccination coverage and cost. We measured the annual number of health-related events and treatment costs averted, as well as the cost-effectiveness in US dollars per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) and cost per death averted. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed by individually varying each model input. RESULTS With use of a vaccine that has an estimated effectiveness of 50%, a rotavirus vaccination program in India would prevent ~44,000 deaths, ~293,000 hospitalizations, and ~328,000 outpatient visits annually, which would avert $20.6 million in medical treatment costs. Vaccination would be cost-saving at the GAVI Alliance price of $0.15 per dose. At $1.00 per dose, a vaccination program would cost $49.8 million, which would result in an expenditure of $21.41 per DALY averted or $662.94 per life saved. Even at $7.00 per dose, vaccination would be highly cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, varying efficacy against severe rotavirus disease and vaccine price had the greatest impact on cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS A national rotavirus vaccination program in India would prevent substantial rotavirus morbidity and mortality and would be highly cost-effective at a range of vaccine prices. Public health officials can use this locally derived data to evaluate how this highly cost-effective intervention might fit into India's long-term health care goals.