forecasting climate changes of ziarat watershed in gorgan city

نویسندگان

maedeh razavi zade

karim solaimani

esmaeil sailakhori

چکیده

climate is a complex system which is changing mainly due to the increase of greenhouse gases. because of the importance of climate change and the effects it can have on water resources, in recent years, this topic has been taken into consideration for different basins on earth. the objective of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change and forecasting meteorological variables of ziarat watershed in golestan province. in this research, daily data on minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours of synoptic station of hashem abad in gorgan city and pluviometer station of naharkhoran over the period of 1985-2013 was simulated using lars-wg statistic model and after ensuring the effectiveness of this model in the simulation of meteorological parameters mentioned in ziarat watershed, the data related to three scenarios including a2 (maximum scenario), a1b (middle scenario) and b1 (minimum scenario) of hadcm3 model over the time period of 2046-2065 was downscaled with lars-wg model in order to examine the effects of climate change on basin runoff. the results indicated that according to the lars-wg model estimation for scenarios studied, the average temperature of ziarat basin will be increased up to 1.64 to 3.70 degrees celsius over the upcoming periods. also, the amount of rainfall will change at a rate of -1.510 to 9.66 mm in compared to the base period.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Forecasting climate changes of Ziarat watershed in Gorgan city

Climate is a complex system which is changing mainly due to the increase of greenhouse gases. Because of the importance of climate change and the effects it can have on water resources, in recent years, this topic has been taken into consideration for different basins on Earth. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change and forecasting meteorological variables o...

متن کامل

suitability assessment of rural settlement land-use using systematic model in ziarat watershed, gorgan

extended abstract 1. introduction land use suitability assessment is necessary to prevent and imporove environmental issues. land use planning provides a basis for decision making in spatial planning and land-use management. selecting the appropriate land-use type and pattern according to ecological suitability of lands is the main purpose of watershed management and can lead to the control and...

متن کامل

the effect of the record infancy in crimilly acts of guilties (in karaj city)

چکیده یکی از مهمترین دغدغه های بزرگ جوامع بشری، از دیر باز تا کنون که ذهن پژوهشگران و متخصصان بهداشت روانی و اجتماعی و دولتها رابه خود مشغول داشته، مسأله ی بزهکاری می باشد. شناخت کامل پدیده ی بزهکاری و بزهکار، علل وعوامل سقوط یک انسان، چگونگی درمان وی و درنهایت پیشگیری ازبزهکاری ودریک کلام سالم سازی یک جامعه، رسالت عظیم، انسانی ومقدسی می باشد که با بررسی شخصیت مجرم یعنی[ انسانی که تحت شرای...

15 صفحه اول

Forecasting the effects of climate change on the climatic of the Miahne-city using climate models (SDSM)

The purpose of this study is to determine and predict the effects of climate change on architecture using climate models. By clarifying the consequences of the impact of urban architecture on climate change while using the data of surrounding stations with library and field data methods. The climatic parameters of precipitation, temperature and relative humidity of the synoptic station of Miyan...

متن کامل

Analysis and forecasting drought, evapotranspiration and green water changes in Urmia Lake Basin under climate change

Sustainable development of agriculture is facing with several challenges such as climate change resulting change in the pattern of weather parameters as well as crop water requirements. In this research, due to the important role of agricultural activities whitin Urmia Lake Basin in the production of various agricultural products such as wheat, the possibility of supplying the plant's water req...

متن کامل

منابع من

با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید


عنوان ژورنال:
نشریه علمی - پژوهشی هیدرولوژی کاربردی

جلد ۲، شماره ۱، صفحات ۳۹-۴۸

میزبانی شده توسط پلتفرم ابری doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023