management of hydropower future production under climate change impacts. case study: karun 4 plant

increasing of energy demand and decreasing of water resources, could make the future energy production as a big challenge. climate change is one of the main reasons for water resources limitation. future precipitation and air temperature, change hydrological conditions and directly effect on the hydropower production. for showing the future condition and making it possible to manage the hydropower, a mathematical model is developed and is run under lingo optimization package. climate changes are evaluated by establishing a group of scenarios of hydrological parameters. in this research a 30 years historical data of karun4 basin is used to establish the monthly temperature-evaporation models and series of multi-variable discharge models. by using these models, future discharge scenarios are computed by the downloaded scenarios data. the results show a 17.2% reduction on precipitation, a 22.6% increasing on air temperature and a 26.1% increasing on the evaporation. these all cause a 10.9% reduction on the river discharge at the dam entrance. by managing the pf and taking it equal to 0.2, production optimization results a range of reduction between 12 and 46 percent with the average amount of 20% in energy production under a series of restrictions from climate change, plant characteristics and future energy demand.