XYtracker: a new approach to estimate fault rupture extent in real time for large earthquakes

Abstract We present a methodology for estimating fault geometry and utilizing the distance to shaking estimation improve accuracy of real-time estimates large earthquakes. Most earthquake early warning system currently seismic intensity with ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) as function hypocenter distance. However, using computed from finite source model can This study proposes novel methodology, XYtracker, estimate surface projection extent intensity. For earthquakes, high-frequency ground motions tend saturate over magnitude range strongly correlate As result, this work achieve GMPE. considered three types models: point-source, line-source, rectangle-source model. found most probable parameters each by minimizing residual sum squares between observed estimated intensities. The Akaike Information Criterion selected among them. strong motion data set 2008 Wenchuan, 2011 Tohoku, 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes was used test our methodology. new method obtain ongoing rupture length direction data. selection scheme finite-source explain distribution. Results revealed that approach performed well in dimension. promote future including subduction Graphical