What Microeconomic Fundamentals Drove Global Oil Prices during 1986–2020?

نویسندگان

چکیده

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 caused major economic disturbances in the oil market. In this paper, we consider five variables that describe microeconomics supply and demand for oil, evaluate their importance before, during after crisis. We dissimilar regimes period January 1986 to end 2020: two prior crisis, regime main hypothesis tested is fundamentals remained important, even though were dissimilar. built boosted over-fitted neural networks capture exact relationships between spot prices data related these prices. This analysis shows that, while inputs into an accurate network can remain same, impact each variable change considerably different regimes.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of risk and financial management

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1911-8074', '1911-8066']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14080391