What if? Counterfactual Trump and the western response to the war in Ukraine

Abstract Because of his personality, had Donald Trump won the 2020 election remarkable and unexpected united response by NATO allies to February 2022 Russian invasion Ukraine would not have happened. Relying on leader personality research in foreign policy, we demonstrate this using counterfactual method analysis. Specifying key differences between Biden's Trump's personalities terms their experiences, traits beliefs, explicitly show that president been very unlikely share US intelligence, rally support or challenge Vladimir Putin. In contrast, these responses fit well with Joe personality. We first present analysis as a before comparing Biden along characteristics known significantly influence foreign-policy decisions. Through our case-study, value systematic theoretically grounded methods for assessing importance individual leaders emphasizing impact international affairs.