What Do We Know When? Modeling Predictability of Transit Operations

نویسندگان

چکیده

Predictions of transit delays are crucial to passengers and operators. Passengers utilize the predictions decide on departure time, route choice, mode whereas operators schedules, timetables, rolling stock allocation, control actions. We introduce concept predictability travel times as study reduction predicted variability with temporal approaching a event. evaluate real-life test case in Zurich, Switzerland, spanning multiple lines over one year operations. The is shown based obtained by state-of-the-art Bayesian network approach, where we show how (in general) can be modeled an exponential decay phenomenon. operations leads additional insights for actions system analysis compared other complementary concepts such punctuality or regularity, instance, concerning bunching, identification bottlenecks, passenger routing.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1558-0016', '1524-9050']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/tits.2022.3145243