Welfare and Excess Volatility of Exchange Rates

Welfare and excess volatility of exchange rates

Volatility in Foreign Exchange Rates

Four foreign exchange spot rate series, recorded on an hourly basis for a six-month period in 1986 are examined. A seasonal GARCH model is developed to describe the time-dependent volatility apparent in the percentage nominal return of each currency. Hourly patterns in volatility are found to be remarkably similar across currencies and appear to be related to the opening and closing of the worl...

The Excess Volatility of Foreign Exchange Rates: Statistical Puzzle or Theoretical Artifact?∗

The inability to reconcile observed levels of foreign exchange rate volatility with predictions derived from rational expectations models represents one of the most persistent challenges in international finance. This paper shows that such excess volatility puzzles arise from informational assumptions by contrasting exchange rate equilibria under different expectational paradigms: rational expe...

Foreign Exchange Rates Have Surprising Volatility

Local Polynomial Estimation (LPE) is implemented on a dataset of high-frequency foreign exchange (FX) quotes. This nonparametric technique is meant to provide a exible background against which to evaluate parametric time series models. Assuming a conditionally heteroscedastic nonlinear autoregressive (CHARN) model, estimates of the mean and volatility functions are reported. The mean function d...

Capital controls and the volatility of South African exchange rates