Warming Threatens to Propel the Expansion of the Exotic Seagrass Halophila stipulacea

The spread of exotic species to new areas can be magnified when favored by future climatic conditions. Forecasting ranges using distribution models (SDMs) could improved considering physiological thresholds, because solely based on occurrence data cannot account for plasticity due acclimation individuals local conditions over their life-time or adaptation selection within populations. This is particularly relevant the seagrass Halophila stipulacea , which colonized Mediterranean Sea a century ago and shifted its thermal niche, coping with colder regime. Here, we used two hybrid combining correlative SDMs limits growth native H. populations predict in (Indian Ocean Red Sea) (Mediterranean Caribbean under scenarios forecasting limited (RCP 2.6) severe 8.5) climate changes 2050 2100. Then, assessed differences between (niche conservatism: 17–36°C) (local adaptation: 14–36°C). At range, model accurately agreed present while niche conservatism-based failed 87% current occurrences species. By contrast, both predicted similar distributions range at projected that will maintain worldwide all greenhouse gas emission scenarios. expansion through western basin (except gulf Leon) most scenario 2100, increasing 50% Mediterranean. related capacity cope warm waters it may become future, decline seagrasses, resulting important shifts communities overall ecosystem functions.