Using Ensemble Forecasts for Model Validation

نویسندگان
چکیده

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms

4 Any decision making process that relies on a probabilistic forecast of future events necessarily 5 requires a calibrated forecast. This paper proposes new methods for empirically assessing 6 forecast calibration in a multivariate setting where the probabilistic forecast is given by an 7 ensemble of equally probable forecast scenarios. Multivariate properties are mapped to a single 8 dimension...

متن کامل

Mixture EMOS model for calibrating ensemble forecasts of wind speed

Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is a statistical tool for post-processing forecast ensembles of weather variables obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models in order to produce calibrated predictive probability density functions. The EMOS predictive probability density function is given by a parametric distribution with parameters depending on the ensemble foreca...

متن کامل

Do Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Yield Added Value?

The THORPEX goal of improving weather forecasts from one day to two weeks suggests the combination of multi-model and multi-initial-condition ensembles of simulations into a probabilistic forecast of some kind. This contribution presents a simple methodology for combining forecasts (be they high resolution or ensemble forecasts) into a predictive distribution function of a chosen target variabl...

متن کامل

Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Fuel Consumption Using Ensemble Weather Forecasts

The effects of wind uncertainty on aircraft fuel consumption are analyzed using a probabilistic trajectory predictor. The case of cruise flight subject to an average constant wind is considered. The average wind is modeled as a random variable; the wind uncertainty is obtained from ensemble weather forecasts. The probabilistic trajectory predictor is based on the Probability Transformation Meth...

متن کامل

Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU Abstract A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of pr...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Monthly Weather Review

سال: 1997

ISSN: 0027-0644,1520-0493

DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2416:ueffmv>2.0.co;2