Unemployment after the Recession: A New Natural Rate?
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
The Current Depth of Recession and Unemployment Rate Forecasts
Building upon Beaudry and Koop’s (1993) analysis, we consider a “current depth of the recession” (CDR) variable in modeling the time series behavior of the postwar quarterly U.S. unemployment rate. The CDR approach is consistent with the state-dependent behavior in the unemployment rate documented in the business cycle asymmetry literature. We show that while the CDR effect is significant in-sa...
متن کاملUnemployment in the Great Recession
This paper studies the responses of unemployment in Germany, the United States and Britain to the Great Recession of 2008-09 by making use of Beveridge curve analysis, and in the entire OECD with other techniques. It is shown that Britain suffered from recession but no structural problems; the United States suffered from structural unemployment during the recovery; Germany exhibited a much bett...
متن کاملAssessing the Natural Rate of Unemployment
It has long been argued (Blanchard et al., 1992; Blanchard and Katz, 1997) that shifts in local labor market conditions, geographic variation in labor force demographics (labor supply), and sectoral shifts in industrial patterns (labor demand) might influence the natural rate of unemployment. On the supply side of the labor market this could occur through divergent trends in differential attach...
متن کاملHow Will Unemployment Fare Following the Recession?
Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the U.S. unemployment rate has risen more than four percentage points. Similar sharp increases in unemployment have occurred in other severe recessions, such as those in 1973-75 and 1981-82. In the aftermath of those severe recessions, the economy rapidly recovered and unemployment quickly declined. Will unemployment behave similarly following ...
متن کاملThe Great Recession, unemployment and suicide
BACKGROUND How have suicide rates responded to the marked increase in unemployment spurred by the Great Recession? Our paper puts this issue into a wider perspective by assessing (1) whether the unemployment-suicide link is modified by the degree of unemployment protection, and (2) whether the effect on suicide of the present crisis differs from the effects of previous economic downturns. MET...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
سال: 2010
ISSN: 2163-3738,0428-1276
DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201011