Two Centuries of Economic Growth: Norwegian GDP 1816-2020

Seven Centuries of Economic Growth and Decline

This paper investigates very long run pre-industrial economic development. New annual GDP per capita data for six European countries over the last seven hundred years paints a clearer picture of the history of European economic development. First, it confirms that sustained growth has been a recent phenomenon, but rejects the argument that there was no permanent growth in living standards befor...

Two Centuries of Productivity Growth in Computing

The present study analyzes computer performance over the last century and a half. Three results stand out. First, there has been a phenomenal increase in computer power over the twentieth century. Depending upon the standard used, computer performance has improved since manual computing by a factor between 1.7 trillion and 76 trillion. Second, there was a major break in the trend around World W...

Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective

This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270 to 1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, preand post-industrial revolution. We also find t...

Pattern and Sustainability of China’s Economic Growth towards 2020∗

4 . Forecasting China ’ s Economic Growth by 2020 and 2030

From the late 1970s, China enjoyed an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. This study analyses the causes of this slowdown and forecasts China’s economic growth from 2016 to 2020, and projects China’s growth to 2030.