“Turning Points” in the Iraq Conflict

“Turning Points” in the Iraq Conflict: Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Political Science

We consider and explore structural breaks in a day-by-day time series of civilian casualties for the current Iraq conflict: an undertaking of potential interest to scholars of international relations, comparative politics, and American politics. We review Bayesian change-point techniques already used by political methodologists before advocating and briefly describing the use of reversible-jump...

religious Conflict in Iraq

Estimating the intensity of conflict in Iraq

Over the last five years several websites have appeared that track the number of deaths of coalition personnel in the current Iraq conflict. This article proposes using a recently developed multiscale variance stabilization method (the datadriven Haar-Fisz transform) to obtain good estimates of the mean intensity of deaths and demonstrates its statistical advantages over both the running mean (...

Turning Points in Environmental History

List of Participants: Werner Abelshauser (University of Bielefeld), Alla Bolotova (European University, St. Petersburg), Stefan Brakensiek (University of Bielefeld), Franz-Josef Brüggemeier (University of Freiburg), Jens Ivo Engels (University of Freiburg), Deborah Fitzgerald (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Bernd-Stefan Grewe (University of Constance), Richard H. Grove (University of S...

Turning Points in Computer Education

This history of computers in education covers two continents. By analysing the experiences of two people a set of turning points in history is identified. These turning points are in the experienced history and so indicate the impact of changes on the citizens of two countries.