منابع مشابه
Predicting election trends with Twitter: Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump
Forecasting opinion trends from real-time social media is the long-standing goal of modern-day big-data analytics. Despite its importance, there has been no conclusive scientific evidence so far that social media activity can capture the opinion of the general population at large. Here we develop analytic tools combining statistical physics of complex networks, percolation theory, natural langu...
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Social media users often make explicit predictions about upcoming events. Such statements vary in the degree of certainty the author expresses toward the outcome: “Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor” vs. “Leonardo DiCaprio may win” or “No way Leonardo wins!”. Can popular beliefs on social media predict who will win? To answer this question, we build a corpus of tweets annotated for veridical...
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In this paper, we propose a framework to infer the topic preferences of Donald Trump’s followers on Twitter. We first use latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) to derive the weighted mixture of topics for each Trump tweet. Then we use negative binomial regression to model the “likes,” with the weights of each topic serving as explanatory variables. Our study shows that attacking Democrats such as P...
متن کاملWill Sanders Supporters Jump Ship for Trump? Fine-grained Analysis of Twitter Followers
In this paper, we study the likelihood of Bernie Sanders supporters voting for Donald Trump instead of Hillary Clinton. Building from a unique time-series dataset of the three candidates’ Twitter followers, which we make public here, we first study the proportion of Sanders followers who simultaneously follow Trump (but not Clinton) and how this evolves over time. Then we train a convolutional ...
متن کاملBond Durations: Corporates vs. Treasuries
We compare the durations of corporate and Treasury bonds in the reducedform, intensity based credit risk modeling framework. In the case where default risk is independent of default-free interest rates, we provide in each of the three most popular recovery regimes a sufficient condition under which the duration of the corporate bond is smaller than the duration of a similar Treasury bond. In th...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Contemporary Economic Policy
سال: 2020
ISSN: 1074-3529,1465-7287
DOI: 10.1111/coep.12465