Transfer learning for electricity price forecasting
نویسندگان
چکیده
Electricity price forecasting is an essential task in all the deregulated markets of world. The accurate prediction day-ahead electricity prices active research field and available data from various can be used as input for forecasting. A collection models have been proposed this task, but fundamental question on how to use big often neglected. In paper, we propose transfer learning a tool utilizing information other We pre-train neural network model source finally do fine-tuning target market. Moreover, test different ways rich forecast 24 steps ahead hourly frequency. Our experiments four indicate that improves performance statistically significant manner. Furthermore, compare our results with state-of-the-art methods rolling window scheme demonstrate approach. method algorithms by 7% French market 3% German
منابع مشابه
Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models
Forecasting electricity prices in presentday competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of elec...
متن کاملA Hybrid Model for Gefcom2014 Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting a Hybrid Model for Gefcom2014 Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting
This paper provides detailed information on Team Poland’s approach in the electricity price forecasting track of GEFCom2014. A new hybrid model is proposed, consisting of four major blocks: point forecasting, pre-filtering, quantile regression modeling and post-processing. This universal model structure enables independent development of a single block, without affecting performance of the rema...
متن کاملElectricity price forecasting – ARIMA model approach
Electricity price forecasting is becoming more important in everyday business of power utilities. Good forecasting models can increase effectiveness of producers and buyers playing roles in electricity market. Price is also a very important element in investment planning process. This paper presents a forecasting technique to model day-ahead spot price using well known ARIMA model to analyze an...
متن کاملGEFCOM 2014 - Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting
Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a wellknown and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient Boosting Regression. The method was tested on data from Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 with a year long rolling window forecast. The results from th...
متن کاملEnsemble Prediction Model with Expert Selection for Electricity Price Forecasting
Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towa...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2352-4677']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.segan.2023.100996